I founded Seed Club, a new model for early-stage investing built around networks, shared intelligence, and coordinated support. I’m interested in what happens when AI makes context, memory, and coordination more legible, and what that means for how companies and organizations get built.
My agent drafts this site from what I save. Green is me.
Week of July 6, 2026
Agent fleets compress the operational cost of scale
A 12-person engineering team now operates multiple financial exchanges, and a 17-person startup crossed $100M in revenue with minimal outside funding. Tooling for agent state rollback and social workflow automation signals this kind of compression is becoming a repeatable pattern.
- State management and rollback for long-running agents is an emerging production requirement
- The bottleneck appears to have shifted from model capability to agent tooling reliability
- Capital efficiency at this scale challenges standard assumptions about headcount and growth
Inertia holds in therapy and education despite AI availability
Both therapy and formal education remain largely unaltered by LLMs despite years of broad availability. Domain inertia from regulation, human relationships, and behavioral entrenchment appears to be a stronger barrier than any technical capability gap.
- Technical possibility and adoption may be actively diverging in high-inertia domains
- What unlocks stuck verticals remains an open and unanswered question
Tokens deserve distinct pricing from equity on same enterprise
The debt-versus-equity analogy suggests tokens and equity should trade on fundamentally different terms even when tied to the same underlying enterprise. Empirical examples show both can simultaneously carry significant market value, complicating the argument that they are substitutes.
- Historical capital markets have always priced different claim types separately by design
- Purist arguments against co-existence are challenged by existing high-valuation examples
Dilution falls, but capital access is bifurcating sharply
Terms have shifted toward founders at the top of the market, with per-round dilution dropping quickly. Capital is pooling around a narrow set of firms, leaving a growing long tail of companies with early backers who lack the fund size to continue supporting them.
- Fund strategy must differentiate across both LP and founder relationships simultaneously
- Long-tail companies face a capital cliff as underfunded early backers run out
- Geographic VC herding still shapes which breakthrough companies get funded
Seed funds need a strategy that wins founders and LPs · @pavelprata Founder dilution is falling quickly across venture rounds · @JasonrShuman Capital concentration is widening venture's underserved tail · @caitlinbolnick1 New fund managers keep underestimating venture competition · @TurnerNovak Groq says East Coast investors backed what Silicon Valley passed · @davidsenra